Litecoin’s next clear threshold is $200. Will LTC hit $200 in 2020, 2021, or beyond that? We use empirical option pricing data to generate a random walk model that gives you hard numerical predictions for when LTC will hit $200 or even $400.
Which model to use for Litecoin price movement?
When Litecoin hits a certain price depends on your model.
The industry gold standard numerical predictions is a random walk model. Since Litecoin doesn’t have a liquid options market, we use the historical realized volatility of 110%.
The random walk model is appropriate even if you’re a Litecoin bull or bear. You can believe that in the long run, Litecoin will go up. But if you believe that short-term, fluctuations in LTC price every minute are mostly uncorrelated, then you believe in the random walk model. This model also generates cold hard numbers to inform your investments, versus vague pronunciations of “resistance” or “profit taking”.
When will Litecoin hit $200 in 2021?
Running 1,000,000 ensembles in using our gold standard model, we project that LTC will at least touch $200 with 47% chance on or before December 31st, 2021.
But 2021 is a long time. When exactly will LTC actually hit $200?
The below chart gives the cumulative distribution of when Litecoin will hit $200. To read the chart, first take a date like 2021-07-01 (which lines up to the “2021-07” tick below). Find the date on the x-axis, and then go up to the y-axis, where you get .32. This means that Litecoin will hit $200 on or before 2021-07 with 32% chance.
You can see that that there is a 45% chance of hitting $200 before November 2021, and a 12% chance of hitting $200 before March 2021.
What the highest price that Litecoin will hit in 2021?
From our same model, we can calculate the highest price that LTC will ever hit before the end of 2021. We calculate that Litecoin’s median high price in 2021 will be $180, and Litecoin’s average high price will be $272.
Why is the average high price greater than the median high price? Because of positive skew: in the best ensembles from our simulation, Litecoin’s high price is much higher than average. In fact, there is a 3.3% chance Litecoin breaks $1,000 in 2021. 3.3% is a relatively high chance for hitting $1,000 so soon!
The plot below shows the cumulative density function of LTC’s high price before end of 2021. You can read the chart by taking a price on the x-axis, like $600, and then tracing up to the y-axis which is about 90% chance. This means that LTC’s 2021 high price has a 90% chance of being below $600. The graph truncates at $1,000 (so $1,000 should be read as $1,000 or above).
What the lowest price that LTC will hit in 2021?
Before you get too optimistic, realize that Litecoin’s volatility (even more than BTC) means that the highs can be high, but the lows can be low too. The same exact model above can give us low prices for the year. The median low price is $45, which is also approximately the mean low price. In the worst case, the 20%tile low price is $23. These low prices emphasize one point: have patience and hold through the low periods — HODL!
Just like before, the below gives the cumulative distribution of low prices in our simulation:
When will Litecoin hit $400 in 2021?
If you think that $200 is already likely, the next question to ask is, when will Litecoin hit $400? Will LTC hit $400 in 2021?
Our analysis shows that there is 18% chance LTC hits $400 before the end of 2021. In fact, there is a 6.4% chance Litecoin hits $400 before midyear, (July 1st 2021) even.